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Neighborhood · Buffalo, NY

Larkinville Eviction Risk: High

5 census tracts · pop 8,812 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.8/10 · range 8.3–9.1

Larkinville is a black-white neighborhood in Buffalo with 5 census tracts and a population of 8,812 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 8.8/10 (High tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 46% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 31% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $851/month sits 19% lower than the Buffalo citywide average ($1,046).

Risk score
8.8
High
5 tracts · population-weighted
Larkinville vs Buffalo How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
45.6% +45%
Buffalo: 31.4%
Average gross rent
$851 -19%
Buffalo: $1,046
Average HH income
$33,671 -30%
Buffalo: $48,050
Poverty rate
32.6% +19%
Buffalo: 27.4%
Renter share
67.5% +19%
Buffalo: 57.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Larkinville and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 5 tracts span score 8.3–9.1

Why Larkinville scores 8.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.7–5.7 across tracts
5.7
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Rent control risk
46% of income on rent · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
68% renter households · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Economic stress
32.6% below poverty line · Range 6.4–10.0 across tracts
7.8
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–3.9 across tracts
2.5
Risk score comparison

Larkinville vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Larkinville score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Larkinville: 8.88.8LarkinvilleNeighborhoodParent city: 9.49.4Parent cityhost cityState: 9.19.1Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Larkinville?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.8 points from 8.3 to 9.1. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

5 tracts in Larkinville

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
36029001403 9.1 2,127 43% $777
36029016400 8.9 3,153 46% $943
36029001602 8.6 1,165 71% $669
36029001500 8.5 1,820 33% $1,042
36029001404 8.3 547 46% $355
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 90

Pop-weighted across 5 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 86%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 88%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 84%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 66%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Larkinville

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Larkinville

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Larkinville?

Larkinville scores 8.8/10 (High tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Larkinville compare to Buffalo overall?

Larkinville scores 0.6 points lower than Buffalo overall (9.4/10). Renters spend 46% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $851 vs $1,046.
Q3

What is the average rent in Larkinville?

Average gross rent in Larkinville is $851/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Larkinville residents are renters?

68% of Larkinville households are renter-occupied (vs 57% in Buffalo). The neighborhood has 8,812 residents.
Q5

Is Larkinville a high social-vulnerability area?

Larkinville sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Larkinville have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Larkinville is census tract 36029001403 (score 9.1/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 8.3 to 9.1, a spread of 0.8 points.
Q7

How safe is Larkinville for landlords?

Larkinville carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.8/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Buffalo as a whole (9.4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Larkinville?

Larkinville has 9,047 residents (Black-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (50.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (22.2%), Hispanic / Latino (16.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Larkinville

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Buffalo

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Larkinville.

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