East Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 60.3% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 41.0% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 68%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points.

66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

Cost burden runs about half here against 44.6% across Erie County. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.