East Side Eviction Risk: High

Food insecurity affects 44.5% of adults, 26.7 points above the national rate. Severe burden reaches 32%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 34.7% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 37%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 8.2/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty at 8/10. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.5/10. Among the 21 mapped neighborhoods of Buffalo, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Its 8 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses. Average gross rent runs $1,031, close to the Buffalo average.

Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $38,666. 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 9.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.