East Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

SNAP participation runs 46.0% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. Housing insecurity runs 32.8% against 14.2% nationally.

24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The dominant input is local political climate at 8/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.9/10. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.