Elmwood Village Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

At $1,364 a month, rents run 30% over what the rest of Buffalo commands. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10.

It sits 1.7 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. The voucher gap is 16.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 94% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.