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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Buffalo

Tract 36029016900 · Erie County, NY · pop 4,659 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

36029016900 is a census tract in the Elmwood Village area of Buffalo, NY. It scores 7.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,659 residents. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27% Stable renters 28% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,806
Renter share55.1%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate15.4%
Median income$88,824

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#5 of 7 tracts In Elmwood Village
Low
Within parent city
12 th percentile
Rank, 12th percentileLowHigh
#80 of 91 tracts In Buffalo
Very Low
Within county
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#83 of 260 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#3,036 of 5,394 tracts In New York
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9189, -78.8682 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood Village scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buffalo
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
15.4% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,152 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5

How Elmwood Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elmwood Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.9This tracttract 0169007.9Buffaloparent city6.8Countyavg tract in county7.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 39

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmwood Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood Village

The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. It sits 1.1 points above the Erie County average of 6.8.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Against Erie County at 44.6%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened.

At $1,152 a month, rents run 10% over what the rest of Buffalo commands. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 4.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $88,824, annual rent is just 16%.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 55% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016900?

Census tract 36029016900 in the Elmwood Village neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 36029016900?

Median gross rent is $1,152/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016900?

15.4% of residents in tract 36029016900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,659.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 4th, minority 46th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 36029016900 considered part of Elmwood Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016900 fall within Elmwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 36029016900 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 36029016900 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016900 scores 7.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 36029016900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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