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Neighborhood · Ranked #2,892 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Buffalo

Tract 36029016802 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,008 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 36029016802 sits in the Elmwood Village neighborhood of Buffalo eviction risk, New York eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. On the national scale it ranks #19,123 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 31% of renter households, a high level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $889 monthly, set against $53,708 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 49% of occupied homes.

Risk score
7.6
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 34% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units734
Renter share49.2%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$53,708

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Elmwood Village
Very High
Within parent city
22 th percentile
Rank, 22nd percentileLowHigh
#71 of 91 tracts In Buffalo
Low
Within county
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#74 of 260 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#1,155 of 5,394 tracts In New York
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9154, -78.8580 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood Village scores 7.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buffalo
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$889 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5

How Elmwood Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elmwood Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 7.67.6This tracttract 016802Buffalo: 9.49.4Buffaloparent cityCounty: 6.06.0Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.95.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 66

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmwood Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood Village

The score leans hardest on eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Erie County average of 6.1 and in line with the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 66th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 24.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016802?

Census tract 36029016802 in the Elmwood Village neighborhood scores 7.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 36029016802?

Median gross rent is $889/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016802?

15.0% of residents in tract 36029016802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,008.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 21th, minority 95th, housing 70th.
Q5

Is tract 36029016802 considered part of Elmwood Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016802 fall within Elmwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 36029016802 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 36029016802 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016802 scores 7.6/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 36029016802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 27% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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