Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #5,153 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Village Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029016802 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,008 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 36029016802 covers part of the Elmwood Village area of Buffalo, NY, and scores 8.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs 31% here against 44.6% across Erie County.

Risk score
8.6
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 34% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units734
Renter share49.2%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$53,708

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Elmwood Village
Very High
Within parent city
22 th percentile
Rank, 22nd percentileLowHigh
#71 of 91 tracts In Buffalo
Low
Within county
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#71 of 260 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#2,167 of 5,394 tracts In New York
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9154, -78.8580 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood Village scores 8.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buffalo
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$889 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5

How Elmwood Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elmwood Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state8.6This tracttract 0168027.9Buffaloparent city6.8Countyavg tract in county7.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 66

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmwood Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood Village

27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.8 points. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10.

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. SNAP participation runs 26.8% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 24.4% against 14.2% nationally.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $889, 15% below the Buffalo average.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 94th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016802?

Census tract 36029016802 in the Elmwood Village neighborhood scores 8.6/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 36029016802?

Median gross rent is $889/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016802?

15.0% of residents in tract 36029016802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,008.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 21th, minority 95th, housing 70th.
Q5

Is tract 36029016802 considered part of Elmwood Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016802 fall within Elmwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 36029016802 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 36029016802 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016802 scores 8.6/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 36029016802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 27% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related