Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029016600 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,775 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 9.3/10, tract 36029016600 in the Fruit Belt area of Buffalo, NY reads high for landlord eviction risk. Food insecurity runs 52.1% against 17.8% nationally.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 15% Owners 65%

Tract context

Occupied units1,127

Renter share35.4%

SVI overall0.97

Poverty rate37.1%

Median income$24,963

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8962, -78.8458 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fruit Belt scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

37.1% poverty · this tract

9.3

Supply constraint

$861 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Fruit Belt compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
100%Household composition
96%Racial/ethnic minority
76%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
75%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Fruit Belt. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

38.5%Housing insecurity
30.4%Utility-shutoff threat
52.1%Food insecurity
58.6%SNAP enrollment
26.5%Transit barriers
13.6%No health insurance
21.9%Frequent mental distress
42.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fruit Belt

Housing insecurity runs 38.5% against 14.2% nationally. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.3/10. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points.

Annualized rent equals 41% of average household income of $24,963, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 37%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Erie County at 44.6%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened.

On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

Average gross rent is $861, 18% below the Buffalo average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016600

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016600?

Census tract 36029016600 in the Fruit Belt neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029016600?

Median gross rent is $861/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016600?

37.1% of residents in tract 36029016600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,775.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 100th, minority 96th, housing 76th.

Is tract 36029016600 considered part of Fruit Belt?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016600 fall within Fruit Belt (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029016600 struggle to pay rent?

About 38.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029016600 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016600 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029016600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.