Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. Set annual rent against average income of $26,886 and the ratio lands at 40%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

The dominant input is local political climate at 8/10. On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Food insecurity runs 30.9% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 26.6% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $895, 14% below the Buffalo average. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.