Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #5,730 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Shore Eviction Risk: High
Tract 36103146004 · Suffolk County, NY · pop 1,602
Census tract 36103146004 covers part of Bay Shore, NY, and scores 8.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,602 residents. 65% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
8.4
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 0%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units476
Renter share13.9%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate17.5%
Median income$75,577
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
57
th percentile
Elevated
National
93
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bay Shore and the region
Centroid at 40.7371, -73.2576 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Shore scores 8.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bay Shore
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
17.5% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,773 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bay Shore
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bay Shore
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bay Shore
6.4
How Bay Shore compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 85%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.1%Housing insecurity
- 13.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.6%Food insecurity
- 23.4%SNAP enrollment
- 13.3%Transit barriers
- 15.3%No health insurance
- 17.2%Frequent mental distress
- 32.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Shore
Against Suffolk County at 51.3%, 100% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Suffolk County average of 6.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.1 points. What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10. Food insecurity runs 28.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Housing insecurity runs 24.1% against 14.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,773, 14% below the Bay Shore average.
Nationally it ranks #5,730 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $75,577.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 36103146004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36103146004?
Census tract 36103146004 in Bay Shore scores 8.4/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 36103146004?
Median gross rent is $1,773/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 100% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 36103146004?
17.5% of residents in tract 36103146004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,602.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 36103146004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 91th, minority 82th, housing 85th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 36103146004 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 36103146004 compare to Bay Shore overall?
Tract 36103146004 scores 8.4/10, higher than the parent city of Bay Shore at 7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bay Shore eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bay Shore
Top eight tracts in Bay Shore ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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