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Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Bismarck Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 38015010100 · Burleigh County, ND · pop 3,444

Census tract 38015010100 covers part of Bismarck, ND, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 48% Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,819
Renter share69.1%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$47,580

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 16 tracts In Bismarck
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 19 tracts In Burleigh County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 228 tracts In North Dakota
Very High
National
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#39,308 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bismarck and the region

Centroid at 46.8089, -100.7866 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bismarck scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bismarck
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.0
State political climate
North Dakota legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$726 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bismarck
1.5

How Bismarck compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bismarck risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.6This tracttract 0101003.2Bismarckparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county3.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bismarck

On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 1/10. 69% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Average gross rent is $726, 27% below the Bismarck average. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Burleigh County average of 3.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.

Against Burleigh County at 34.1%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the ND average is 3.5, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $47,580.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 38015010100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38015010100?

Census tract 38015010100 in Bismarck scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 38015010100?

Median gross rent is $726/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 38015010100?

20.1% of residents in tract 38015010100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,444.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 38015010100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 10th, minority 32th, housing 88th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 38015010100 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 38015010100 compare to Bismarck overall?

Tract 38015010100 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bismarck at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bismarck eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bismarck

Top eight tracts in Bismarck ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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