Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Lincoln Eviction Risk: Lower , Fargo
Tract 38017001004 ·
Cass County, ND · pop 4,390 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 38017001004 sits in the Lincoln eviction risk area of Fargo eviction risk, ND, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%Stable renters 35%Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,201
Renter share54.4%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate8.0%
Median income$54,003
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Lincoln
Moderate
Within parent city
52th percentile
#15 of 30 tracts In Fargo
Moderate
Within county
65th percentile
#16 of 44 tracts In Cass County
Elevated
Within state
69th percentile
#72 of 228 tracts In North Dakota
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fargo and the region
Centroid at 46.8402, -96.7947 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincoln scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Fargo
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
North Dakota legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
8.0% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$739 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fargo
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fargo
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fargo
1.5
How Lincoln compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
40%Socioeconomic
55%Household composition
41%Racial/ethnic minority
72%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.2%Housing insecurity
6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
11.8%Food insecurity
8.2%SNAP enrollment
7.0%Transit barriers
7.0%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincoln
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.5/10. At $739 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Fargo commands.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 8.2% against 15.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Social vulnerability reads 5.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $54,003, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
36% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Cass County average of 3.5 closely.
54% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 38017001004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38017001004?
Census tract 38017001004 in the Lincoln neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 38017001004?
Median gross rent is $739/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 38017001004?
8.0% of residents in tract 38017001004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,390.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 38017001004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 55th, minority 41th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 38017001004 considered part of Lincoln?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 38017001004 fall within Lincoln (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 38017001004 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 38017001004 compare to Fargo overall?
Tract 38017001004 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Fargo at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fargo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fargo
Top eight tracts in Fargo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.