Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Southwyck Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095007304 · Lucas County, OH · pop 3,403 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 39095007304 (the Southwyck neighborhood of Toledo, Ohio) comes in at 5.1/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than roughly 41% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 31% of renter households, a high level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,135 a month against an average household income of $57,656 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 60% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 41% Owners 41%

Tract context

Occupied units1,267

Renter share59.6%

SVI overall0.40

Poverty rate11.8%

Median income$57,656

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6188, -83.6782 · click any tract to drill in

Why Southwyck scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Toledo

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

11.8% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$1,135 rent vs county FMR

5.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Toledo

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Toledo

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Toledo

4.0

How Southwyck compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

43%Socioeconomic
22%Household composition
65%Racial/ethnic minority
42%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
18%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Southwyck. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.6%Housing insecurity
11.2%Utility-shutoff threat
18.8%Food insecurity
16.1%SNAP enrollment
10.1%Transit barriers
9.5%No health insurance
19.7%Frequent mental distress
30.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Southwyck

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 5.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Lucas County average of 5.5 and in line with the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 40th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095007304

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095007304?

Census tract 39095007304 in the Southwyck neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39095007304?

Median gross rent is $1,135/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095007304?

11.8% of residents in tract 39095007304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,403.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095007304?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 22th, minority 65th, housing 42th.

Is tract 39095007304 considered part of Southwyck?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095007304 fall within Southwyck (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39095007304 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39095007304 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095007304 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39095007304 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.