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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Oakhurst Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown

Tract 42021001200 · Cambria County, PA · pop 2,419 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 5.8/10, tract 42021001200 in the Oakhurst Homes area of Johnstown, PA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,419. Cost burden runs 57% here against 37.4% across Cambria County.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 11% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,464
Renter share24.9%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate29.9%
Median income$42,372

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Oakhurst Homes
Very High
Within parent city
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
High
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#745 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3463, -78.9464 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oakhurst Homes scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
29.9% poverty · this tract
7.5
Supply constraint
$602 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Oakhurst Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oakhurst Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0012004.4Johnstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 19Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.09%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.1%Peak (2006)
  • 19Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oakhurst Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oakhurst Homes

Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 1.7 points above the Cambria County average of 4.1.

Running hot, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2006, when 4.1% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.6/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021001200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021001200?

Census tract 42021001200 in the Oakhurst Homes neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021001200?

Median gross rent is $602/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021001200?

29.9% of residents in tract 42021001200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,419.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021001200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 65th, minority 25th, housing 70th.
Q5

Is tract 42021001200 considered part of Oakhurst Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021001200 fall within Oakhurst Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021001200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021001200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.09% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021001200 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021001200 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021001200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 23% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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