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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown

Tract 42021013400 · Cambria County, PA · pop 2,439 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 42021013400 sits in the Prospect Homes area of Johnstown eviction risk, PA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.8/10. Population here is 2,439. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 26% Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,158
Renter share35.7%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate27.6%
Median income$34,760

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
Low
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
High
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#745 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3376, -78.9143 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
27.6% poverty · this tract
6.9
Supply constraint
$705 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0134004.4Johnstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 25Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.8%Peak (2006)
  • 25Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

26% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Cambria County average of 37.4%. Against the Cambria County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points.

The poverty rate is 28%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 25 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

Average gross rent is $705, 9% above the Johnstown average. Filings peaked in 2006 at 4.8% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 4.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021013400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021013400?

Census tract 42021013400 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021013400?

Median gross rent is $705/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021013400?

27.6% of residents in tract 42021013400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,439.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021013400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 70th, minority 59th, housing 42th.
Q5

Is tract 42021013400 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021013400 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021013400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 25 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021013400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.76% of renter households, peaking at 4.8% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021013400 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021013400 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021013400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 37% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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