Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown

Tract 42021000100 · Cambria County, PA · pop 978 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

42021000100 is a census tract in the Prospect Homes area of Johnstown, PA. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 53% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units825
Renter share97.5%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate50.7%
Median income$13,870

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
High
Within parent city
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#4 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
Elevated
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#745 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3260, -78.9211 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
50.7% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$382 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0001004.4Johnstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 10Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 1.11%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.1%Peak (2006)
  • 10Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

The poverty rate is 51%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. This is renter territory: 97% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. At $382 a month, rents run 41% under what the rest of Johnstown commands.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 24%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $13,870, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10.

Against the Cambria County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points. Against Cambria County at 37.4%, 45% of renters here are cost-burdened. Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2006, when 1.1% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Johnstown. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 1.1% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021000100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000100?

Census tract 42021000100 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021000100?

Median gross rent is $382/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000100?

50.7% of residents in tract 42021000100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 978.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 32th, minority 38th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 42021000100 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000100 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.11% of renter households, peaking at 1.1% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021000100 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021000100 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021000100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 8% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related