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Neighborhood · Ranked #6,848 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Elevated , Johnstown

Tract 42021000300 · Cambria County, PA · pop 1,611 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 42021000300 runs through the Prospect Homes neighborhood of Johnstown. With 1,611 residents, it scores 6.1/10 for landlords. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

41% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $805 a month while the average household earns $40,861 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 48% of occupied homes.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 28% Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units635
Renter share48.2%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate39.0%
Median income$40,861

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
Moderate
Within parent city
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
Low
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#242 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3115, -78.9110 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
39.0% poverty · this tract
9.7
Supply constraint
$805 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.66.6This tracttract 000300Johnstown: 4.24.2Johnstownparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 32Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.41%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.4%Peak (2006)
  • 32Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

What moves this score most is economic stress at 9.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cambria County average of 4.9 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Part of this tract, about 20% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021000300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000300?

Census tract 42021000300 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021000300?

Median gross rent is $805/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000300?

39.0% of residents in tract 42021000300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,611.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 48th, minority 48th, housing 82th.
Q5

Is tract 42021000300 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000300 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 32 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.41% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021000300 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021000300 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021000300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 20% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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