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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Oakhurst Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown

Tract 42021013600 · Cambria County, PA · pop 3,140 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

Census tract 42021013600 covers part of the Oakhurst Homes area of Johnstown, PA, and scores 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,140. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 38% Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units1,286
Renter share56.3%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate29.8%
Median income$32,443

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Oakhurst Homes
Very Low
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
Very High
Within county
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#4 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#745 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3574, -78.9414 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oakhurst Homes scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
29.8% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$477 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Oakhurst Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oakhurst Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0136004.4Johnstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 104Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 11.90%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.9%Peak (2006)
  • 104Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oakhurst Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oakhurst Homes

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10. 22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

It sits 1.7 points above the Cambria County average of 4.1. Average gross rent is $477, 26% below the Johnstown average.

On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10. Against Cambria County at 37.4%, 32% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Court records carry 104 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Filings peaked in 2006 at 11.9% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Johnstown. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 11.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 7.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021013600

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021013600?

Census tract 42021013600 in the Oakhurst Homes neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021013600?

Median gross rent is $477/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021013600?

29.8% of residents in tract 42021013600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,140.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021013600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 99th, minority 50th, housing 40th.
Q5

Is tract 42021013600 considered part of Oakhurst Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021013600 fall within Oakhurst Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021013600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 104 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021013600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.90% of renter households, peaking at 11.9% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021013600 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021013600 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021013600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 21% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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