Burton Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

The poverty rate is 42%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $26,650, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.

Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.9/10.

Severe burden reaches 15%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Court records carry 1,032 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Average gross rent is $770, 11% below the Erie average.

The worst year on record was 2003, when 34.6% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 25.3% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 9.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.