Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally
Elmwood Eviction Risk: High , Providence
Tract 44007000301 · Providence County, RI · pop 2,985 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 44007000301 sits in the Elmwood area of Providence eviction risk, RI, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8/10. It is home to 2,985 residents. Severe burden reaches 43%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units945
Renter share76.9%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate26.8%
Median income$31,037
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
90
th percentile
High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Providence and the region
Centroid at 41.8030, -71.4277 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmwood scores 8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Providence
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
Rhode Island legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
26.8% poverty · this tract
6.7
Supply constraint
$1,086 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Providence
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Providence
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Providence
6.5
How Elmwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 22%Grade B
- 78%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 208Total filings 2020-21
- 2.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.91×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Portland, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Elmwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 28.6%Housing insecurity
- 17.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.9%Food insecurity
- 31.1%SNAP enrollment
- 16.0%Transit barriers
- 18.9%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 35.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmwood
Annualized rent equals 42% of average household income of $31,037, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. It sits 2.3 points above the Providence County average of 5.7.
This is renter territory: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.7/10. SNAP participation runs 31.1% against 15.2% nationally.
53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Providence County average of 43.2%. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Average gross rent is $1,086, 23% below the Providence average.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.5/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 18.9% against 11.3% nationally.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Providence. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 44007000301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 44007000301?
Census tract 44007000301 in the Elmwood neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 44007000301?
Median gross rent is $1,086/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 44007000301?
26.8% of residents in tract 44007000301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,985.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 44007000301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 88th, minority 86th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 44007000301 considered part of Elmwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 44007000301 fall within Elmwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 44007000301 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.91× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Portland, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 44007000301 struggle to pay rent?
About 28.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 44007000301 compare to Providence overall?
Tract 44007000301 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Providence at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Providence eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 44007000301 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Providence
Top eight tracts in Providence ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · RI
Downtown
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Federal Hill
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Federal Hill
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Bridgham-Arch-Wilson Street Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Downtown
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Wanskuck
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Bridgham-Arch-Wilson Street Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · RI
Wanskuck
8
/ 10 · High
Related