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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally

Lyon Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington

Tract 51013101501 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,027 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51013101501 is a census tract in the Lyon Village area of Arlington, VA. It scores 6.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,027. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.5/10.

Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 40% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,780
Renter share73.0%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate8.0%
Median income$105,521

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Lyon Village
Very High
Within parent city
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#14 of 71 tracts In Arlington
High
Within county
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#13 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#90 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8965, -77.0905 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lyon Village scores 6.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.0% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$2,058 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Lyon Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lyon Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.56.5This tracttract 101501Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lyon Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lyon Village

73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 2/10.

The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 4.2% against 15.2% nationally. Cost burden runs 45% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.

At $2,058 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Arlington commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #15,451 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 2.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

It tracks the Arlington County average of 5.9 closely.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101501

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101501?

Census tract 51013101501 in the Lyon Village neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013101501?

Median gross rent is $2,058/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101501?

8.0% of residents in tract 51013101501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,027.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 2th, minority 58th, housing 64th.
Q5

Is tract 51013101501 considered part of Lyon Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101501 fall within Lyon Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51013101501 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51013101501 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101501 scores 6.5/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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