Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Lyon Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013101502 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,114 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51013101502 in the Lyon Village area of Arlington, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,114 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 44% Owners 38%

Tract context

Occupied units1,405

Renter share62.2%

SVI overall0.15

Poverty rate4.1%

Median income$181,771

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8907, -77.0928 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lyon Village scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,682 rent vs county FMR

6.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How Lyon Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

3%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
38%Racial/ethnic minority
82%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lyon Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

5.2%Housing insecurity
3.2%Utility-shutoff threat
4.8%Food insecurity
2.9%SNAP enrollment
3.9%Transit barriers
4.6%No health insurance
13.7%Frequent mental distress
16.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lyon Village

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Cost burden runs 29% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Food insecurity runs 4.8% against 17.8% nationally. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The voucher gap is 15.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,682, 16% above the Arlington average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.4/10.

Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $181,771, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101502?

Census tract 51013101502 in the Lyon Village neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013101502?

Median gross rent is $2,682/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101502?

4.1% of residents in tract 51013101502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,114.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 3th, minority 38th, housing 82th.

Is tract 51013101502 considered part of Lyon Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101502 fall within Lyon Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51013101502 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013101502 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101502 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.