Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Pine Spring Eviction Risk: Moderate , West Falls Church
Tract 51059450100 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,930 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059450100 covers part of the Pine Spring area of West Falls Church, VA, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,930. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units2,122
Renter share46.7%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$99,827
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Falls Church and the region
Centroid at 38.8692, -77.2096 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pine Spring scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Falls Church
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,160 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Falls Church
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Falls Church
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Falls Church
4.7
How Pine Spring compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 50%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 122Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.86%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2011)
- 29Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.1%Food insecurity
- 13.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 13.1%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 28.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pine Spring
Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.4/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 48% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 122 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. The worst year on record was 2011, when 4.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $2,160, close to the West Falls Church average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059450100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059450100?
Census tract 51059450100 in the Pine Spring neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059450100?
Median gross rent is $2,160/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059450100?
6.1% of residents in tract 51059450100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,930.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059450100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 37th, minority 76th, housing 50th.
Q5
Is tract 51059450100 considered part of Pine Spring?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059450100 fall within Pine Spring (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059450100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 122 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059450100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.86% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059450100 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059450100 compare to West Falls Church overall?
Tract 51059450100 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of West Falls Church at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Falls Church eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Falls Church
Top eight tracts in West Falls Church ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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