Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Fairfax Circle Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton
Tract 51059461901 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,929 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51059461901 is a census tract in the Fairfax Circle area of Oakton, VA. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,929 residents. 22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,363
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.54
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$105,742
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
86
th percentile
High
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakton and the region
Centroid at 38.8692, -77.2863 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairfax Circle scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakton
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,839 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakton
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakton
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakton
3.5
How Fairfax Circle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 54
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 35Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.35%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2011)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 71% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.7%Food insecurity
- 8.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 9.0%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 24.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairfax Circle
The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.2/10. Average gross rent is $1,839, 19% below the Oakton average.
On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 35 evictions over 4 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2011, when 2.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 40% of renters. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $105,742.
52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461901
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461901?
Census tract 51059461901 in the Fairfax Circle neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461901?
Median gross rent is $1,839/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461901?
8.9% of residents in tract 51059461901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,929.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461901?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 54th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 26th, minority 80th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461901 considered part of Fairfax Circle?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461901 fall within Fairfax Circle (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059461901?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 35 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059461901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.35% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059461901 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059461901 compare to Oakton overall?
Tract 51059461901 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Oakton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakton
Top eight tracts in Oakton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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