Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Cobbdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton
Tract 51059461902 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,722 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059461902 sits in the Cobbdale area of Oakton eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. It is home to 1,722 residents. 98% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 63%
Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units494
Renter share97.8%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate7.6%
Median income$89,107
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakton and the region
Centroid at 38.8680, -77.3067 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cobbdale scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakton
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.6% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,906 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakton
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakton
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakton
3.5
How Cobbdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 90%Socioeconomic
- 43%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 212Total filings over 4 yrs
- 8.99%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.7%Peak (2012)
- 48Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cobbdale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.4%Housing insecurity
- 9.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.8%Food insecurity
- 13.7%SNAP enrollment
- 10.2%Transit barriers
- 17.2%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 27.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cobbdale
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.9/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.
around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Average gross rent is $1,906, 16% below the Oakton average.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 212 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 10.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.0% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461902?
Census tract 51059461902 in the Cobbdale neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461902?
Median gross rent is $1,906/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461902?
7.6% of residents in tract 51059461902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,722.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 43th, minority 83th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461902 considered part of Cobbdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461902 fall within Cobbdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059461902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 212 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059461902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.99% of renter households, peaking at 10.7% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059461902 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059461902 compare to Oakton overall?
Tract 51059461902 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Oakton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakton
Top eight tracts in Oakton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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