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Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally

Centre Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville

Tract 51059491202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,768 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 51059491202 covers part of the Centre Heights area of Centreville, VA, and scores 5.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,768. 99% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 54% Owners 1%
Tract context
Occupied units1,005
Renter share99.3%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$86,107

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Centre Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Very High
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#69 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#473 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8407, -77.4385 · click any tract to drill in

Why Centre Heights scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,258 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Centre Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Centre Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.15.1This tracttract 491202Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 209Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 6.83%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.8%Peak (2011)
  • 52Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594912022011: 67 filings (8.75/100 renter HHs)2012: 64 filings (8.36/100 renter HHs)2013: 26 filings (3.39/100 renter HHs)2016: 52 filings (6.82/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Centre Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Centre Heights

20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The main counterweight is economic stress at 2.1/10.

Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Cost burden runs 46% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.

The filing record is not thin: 209 evictions over 4 years of observation. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. It sits 0.8 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.

Filings peaked in 2011 at 8.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.8% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 63rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491202?

Census tract 51059491202 in the Centre Heights neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491202?

Median gross rent is $2,258/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491202?

8.5% of residents in tract 51059491202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,768.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 3th, minority 61th, housing 37th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491202 considered part of Centre Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491202 fall within Centre Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 209 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.83% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491202 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491202 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491202 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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