Neighborhood · Centreville, VA

Centre Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 12,381 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.9/10 · range 4.3–5.2

Centre Heights spans 3 census tracts of Centreville, VA, population 12,381. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.9/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. 43% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the Centreville rate of 30.6%.

Severe burden reaches 28%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10. Court records carry 423 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts.

On the softer side is economic stress, at 2.9/10. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 8.8% of renter households. That places it #1 of 5 neighborhoods in Centreville.

Judgments average 1.5% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are London Towne and Uniontown.

The 3 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.9 points apart at the extremes. Average gross rent runs $2,163, close to the Centreville average. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $114,922.

With little internal variation, 4.9/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

3 tracts · population-weighted

Centre Heights vs Centreville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

42.8% +40%

Centreville: 30.6%

Average gross rent

$2,163 -6%

Centreville: $2,299

Average HH income

$114,922 -20%

Centreville: $143,704

Poverty rate

11.6% +90%

Centreville: 6.1%

Renter share

44.2% +65%

Centreville: 26.8%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Centre Heights and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 4.3–5.2

Why Centre Heights scores 4.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts

7.0

Rent control risk

43% of income on rent · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts

6.7

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–2.7 across tracts

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

44% renter households · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts

5.2

Economic stress

11.6% below poverty line · Range 1.9–3.7 across tracts

2.9

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.9–4.8 across tracts

4.3

Risk score comparison

Centre Heights vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Centre Heights?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.9 points from 4.3 to 5.2. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

5.2 5.1 4.3

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Centre Heights

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51059491201	5.2	6,468	49%	$2,203
51059491202	5.1	1,768	46%	$2,258
51059491303	4.3	4,145	32%	$2,060

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 39

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 53%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 37%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 75%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 21%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Centre Heights

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

423Total filings (sum)
4.83%Avg annual filing rate
8.8%Peak year (2016)
6.58%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Centre Heights

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

11.9%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility shutoff threat
14.5%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
10.8%No health insurance
24.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Centre Heights

What is the eviction-risk score for Centre Heights?

Centre Heights scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Centre Heights compare to Centreville overall?

Centre Heights scores 0.8 points higher than Centreville overall (4.1/10). Renters spend 43% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $2,163 vs $2,299.

What is the average rent in Centre Heights?

Average gross rent in Centre Heights is $2,163/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Centre Heights residents are renters?

44% of Centre Heights households are renter-occupied (vs 27% in Centreville). The neighborhood has 12,381 residents.

Is Centre Heights a high social-vulnerability area?

Centre Heights sits in the 39th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Centre Heights have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Centre Heights is census tract 51059491201 (score 5.2/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.3 to 5.2, a spread of 0.9 points.

How safe is Centre Heights for landlords?

Centre Heights carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.9/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Centreville as a whole (4.1/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Centre Heights?

Centre Heights has 12,968 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (32%), Hispanic / Latino (30.9%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (22.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Centre Heights

4.5 London Towne 2 tracts · pop 9,984 3.8 Willow Springs 3 tracts · pop 15,131 3.9 Uniontown 4 tracts · pop 18,062 4 Greens of Fair Lakes 4 tracts · pop 19,124 3.5 Crystal Springs 2 tracts · pop 9,845 4.1 Brookfield 3 tracts · pop 17,598

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Centreville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Centre Heights.

4.6 London Towne 2 tracts · pop 9,984 3.9 Uniontown 4 tracts · pop 18,062 3.8 Willow Springs 3 tracts · pop 15,131 3.5 Edgelea 1 tracts · pop 2,501

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