Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Centre Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville
Tract 51059491201 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,468 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059491201 sits in the Centre Heights area of Centreville eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. It is home to 6,468 residents. 39% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units2,279
Renter share36.1%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$118,897
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8419, -77.4481 · click any tract to drill in
Why Centre Heights scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$2,203 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2
How Centre Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 41
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 52%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 154Total filings over 4 yrs
- 5.81%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.7%Peak (2016)
- 62Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 48% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Centre Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.1%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 9.5%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 24.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Centre Heights
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 2.7/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Court records carry 154 eviction filings across 4 observed years. On the high side, regional political climate reads 7.1/10.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.8% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 4.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,203, close to the Centreville average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491201?
Census tract 51059491201 in the Centre Heights neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491201?
Median gross rent is $2,203/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491201?
15.0% of residents in tract 51059491201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,468.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 52th, minority 77th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491201 considered part of Centre Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491201 fall within Centre Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 154 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.81% of renter households, peaking at 8.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491201 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491201 compare to Centreville overall?
Tract 51059491201 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Uniontown
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51059490101
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
3.9
/ 10 · Low
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