Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Centreville
Tract 51059491401 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,518 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
With a score of 4.1/10, tract 51059491401 in the Willow Springs area of Centreville, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,518 residents. 62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,742
Renter share28.4%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$121,111
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8313, -77.4268 · click any tract to drill in
Why Willow Springs scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,297 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2
How Willow Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 86Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.2%Peak (2011)
- 14Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 60% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Willow Springs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.8%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.3%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 13.6%Frequent mental distress
- 22.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Willow Springs
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.4/10. Severe burden reaches 17%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.
Court records carry 86 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2011, when 5.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.8/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491401?
Census tract 51059491401 in the Willow Springs neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491401?
Median gross rent is $2,297/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491401?
5.5% of residents in tract 51059491401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,518.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 54th, minority 74th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491401 considered part of Willow Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491401 fall within Willow Springs (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 86 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.26% of renter households, peaking at 5.2% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491401 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491401 compare to Centreville overall?
Tract 51059491401 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Uniontown
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Centre Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51059490101
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
London Towne
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Willow Springs
3.9
/ 10 · Low
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