Neighborhood · Centreville, VA

Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 15,131 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.8/10 · range 3.5–4.1

Willow Springs is a 3-tract neighborhood of Centreville, VA and houses 15,131 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 3.8/10, placing it in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs about half against 30.6% citywide, putting Willow Springs 16.6% over its own city.

The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1.1/10. 19% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10.

Court records carry 374 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts. SNAP participation is 6.2% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 21.4% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 2.8% in 2016, is well off that peak.

That places it #4 of 5 neighborhoods in Centreville. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

The 3 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.6 points apart at the extremes. Average gross rent runs $2,394, close to the Centreville average.

With little internal variation, 3.8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

3.8

Lower

3 tracts · population-weighted

Willow Springs vs Centreville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

47.2% +54%

Centreville: 30.6%

Average gross rent

$2,394 +4%

Centreville: $2,299

Average HH income

$133,098 -7%

Centreville: $143,704

Poverty rate

2.9% -52%

Centreville: 6.1%

Renter share

28.2% +5%

Centreville: 26.8%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Willow Springs and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3.5–4.1

Why Willow Springs scores 3.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts

7.0

Rent control risk

47% of income on rent · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts

6.7

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–2.7 across tracts

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

28% renter households · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts

5.2

Economic stress

2.9% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.4 across tracts

1.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.9–6.3 across tracts

5.4

Risk score comparison

Willow Springs vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Willow Springs?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.6 points from 3.5 to 4.1. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

4.1 3.9 3.5

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Willow Springs

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51059491401	4.1	4,518	62%	$2,297
51059490501	3.9	3,344	52%	$2,061
51059491501	3.5	7,269	36%	$2,607

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 31

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 26%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 32%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 79%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 31%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Willow Springs

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

374Total filings (sum)
3.88%Avg annual filing rate
21.4%Peak year (2013)
2.65%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Willow Springs

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

8.2%Housing insecurity
4.8%Utility shutoff threat
10.2%Food insecurity
6.0%SNAP enrollment
6.8%No health insurance
20.3%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Willow Springs

What is the eviction-risk score for Willow Springs?

Willow Springs scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Willow Springs compare to Centreville overall?

Willow Springs scores 0.3 points lower than Centreville overall (4.1/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $2,394 vs $2,299.

What is the average rent in Willow Springs?

Average gross rent in Willow Springs is $2,394/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Willow Springs residents are renters?

28% of Willow Springs households are renter-occupied (vs 27% in Centreville). The neighborhood has 15,131 residents.

Is Willow Springs a high social-vulnerability area?

Willow Springs sits in the 31st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Willow Springs have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Willow Springs is census tract 51059491401 (score 4.1/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.5 to 4.1, a spread of 0.6 points.

How safe is Willow Springs for landlords?

Willow Springs carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.8/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Centreville as a whole (4.1/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

What is the demographic breakdown of Willow Springs?

Willow Springs has 14,871 residents. Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (49.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (28.5%), Hispanic / Latino (10.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Willow Springs

4.9 Centre Heights 3 tracts · pop 12,381 3.9 Uniontown 4 tracts · pop 18,062 4.5 London Towne 2 tracts · pop 9,984 3.5 Crystal Springs 2 tracts · pop 9,845 4 Greens of Fair Lakes 4 tracts · pop 19,124 5.5 Penderlan 3 tracts · pop 11,322

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Centreville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Willow Springs.

3.9 Uniontown 4 tracts · pop 18,062 3.5 Edgelea 1 tracts · pop 2,501 4.6 London Towne 2 tracts · pop 9,984 4.9 Centre Heights 3 tracts · pop 12,381

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