Skip to content
Neighborhood · Centreville, VA

Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 15,131 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.6/10 · range 5.4–5.8

Willow Springs is a asian-white neighborhood in Centreville with 3 census tracts and a population of 15,131 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 47% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 19% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $2,394/month sits 4% higher than the Centreville citywide median ($2,299).

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Willow Springs vs Centreville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
47.2% +54%
Centreville: 30.6%
Average gross rent
$2,394 +4%
Centreville: $2,299
Average HH income
$133,098 -7%
Centreville: $143,704
Poverty rate
2.9% -52%
Centreville: 6.1%
Renter share
28.2% +5%
Centreville: 26.8%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Willow Springs and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 5.4–5.8

Why Willow Springs scores 5.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Rent control risk
47% of income on rent · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–2.7 across tracts
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
28% renter households · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts
5.9
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.2–5.2 across tracts
5.2
Economic stress
2.9% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.4 across tracts
1.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.9–6.3 across tracts
5.4
Risk score comparison

Willow Springs vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Willow Springs score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Willow Springs: 5.65.6Willow SpringsNeighborhoodParent city: 5.25.2Parent cityhost cityState: 5.35.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Willow Springs?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square — click to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.4 points from 5.4 to 5.8. Tracts are relatively uniform — conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Willow Springs

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059491401 5.8 4,518 62% $2,297
51059490501 5.7 3,344 52% $2,061
51059491501 5.4 7,269 36% $2,607
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 31

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 26%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 32%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 79%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 31%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Willow Springs

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 374Total filings (sum)
  • 3.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 21.4%Peak year (2013)
  • 2.65%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Willow Springs

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Willow Springs

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Willow Springs?

Willow Springs scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Willow Springs compare to Centreville overall?

Willow Springs scores 0.4 points higher than Centreville overall (5.2/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Median rent: $2,394 vs $2,299.

Q3

What is the average rent in Willow Springs?

Median gross rent in Willow Springs is $2,394/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Willow Springs residents are renters?

28% of Willow Springs households are renter-occupied (vs 27% in Centreville). The neighborhood has 15,131 residents.

Q5

Is Willow Springs a high social-vulnerability area?

Willow Springs sits in the 31th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Willow Springs have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Willow Springs is census tract 51059491401 (score 5.8/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.4 to 5.8 — a spread of 0.4 points.

Q7

How safe is Willow Springs for landlords?

Willow Springs carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.6/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Centreville as a whole (5.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Willow Springs?

Willow Springs has 14,871 residents (Asian-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (49.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (28.5%), Hispanic / Latino (10.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Willow Springs

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Centreville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Willow Springs.

Zoom out

Up the geography chain · or explore further