Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Gayton Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Short Pump

Tract 51087200140 · Henrico County, VA · pop 4,801 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51087200140 runs through Gayton Park in Short Pump. With 4,801 residents, it scores 6.1/10 for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 51% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,967 monthly, set against $115,256 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

1.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 26% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units1,968

Renter share51.6%

SVI overall0.32

Poverty rate4.0%

Median income$115,256

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Short Pump and the region

Centroid at 37.6555, -77.6382 · click any tract to drill in

Why Gayton Park scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Short Pump

4.3

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,967 rent vs county FMR

6.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Short Pump

4.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Short Pump

8.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Short Pump

3.7

How Gayton Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

8%Socioeconomic
32%Household composition
42%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.7%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
7.3%Food insecurity
5.1%SNAP enrollment
4.8%Transit barriers
5.0%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
23.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Gayton Park

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 32nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200140

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200140?

Census tract 51087200140 in the Gayton Park neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200140?

Median gross rent is $1,967/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200140?

4.0% of residents in tract 51087200140 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,801.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200140?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 32th, minority 42th, housing 81th.

Is tract 51087200140 considered part of Gayton Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200140 fall within Gayton Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51087200140 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200140 compare to Short Pump overall?

Tract 51087200140 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Short Pump at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Short Pump

Top eight tracts in Short Pump ranked by composite eviction-risk score.