Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally

Kensington Green at Wellesley Eviction Risk: Lower , Short Pump

Tract 51087200141 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,959 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Tract 51087200141, home to 2,959 residents in Kensington Green at Wellesley in Short Pump, scores 5.8/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #28,087 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 40% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,800 a month against an average household income of $121,091 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 41% of occupied homes.

Risk score

1.7

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 25% Owners 59%

Tract context

Occupied units1,131

Renter share41.1%

SVI overall0.21

Poverty rate6.5%

Median income$121,091

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Short Pump and the region

Centroid at 37.6476, -77.6304 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kensington Green at Wellesley scores 1.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Short Pump

4.3

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

6.5% poverty · this tract

1.6

Supply constraint

$1,800 rent vs county FMR

5.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Short Pump

4.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Short Pump

8.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Short Pump

3.7

How Kensington Green at Wellesley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 21

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

12%Socioeconomic
4%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.8%Housing insecurity
4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
7.2%Food insecurity
4.7%SNAP enrollment
4.5%Transit barriers
5.1%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
21.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kensington Green at Wellesley

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 21st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200141

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200141?

Census tract 51087200141 in the Kensington Green at Wellesley neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200141?

Median gross rent is $1,800/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200141?

6.5% of residents in tract 51087200141 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,959.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200141?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 4th, minority 66th, housing 68th.

Is tract 51087200141 considered part of Kensington Green at Wellesley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200141 fall within Kensington Green at Wellesley (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51087200141 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200141 compare to Short Pump overall?

Tract 51087200141 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Short Pump at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Short Pump eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Short Pump

Top eight tracts in Short Pump ranked by composite eviction-risk score.