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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Kincaid Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Leesburg

Tract 51107610604 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,781 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Eviction risk in the Kincaid Forest area of Leesburg centers on tract 51107610604, which scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 6,781 residents. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

22% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,656 monthly, set against $172,639 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 12% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 9% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units2,166
Renter share12.0%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate2.6%
Median income$172,639

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Kincaid Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 9 tracts In Leesburg
Low
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Moderate
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Leesburg and the region

Centroid at 39.0783, -77.5479 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kincaid Forest scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Leesburg
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,656 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Leesburg
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Leesburg
6.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Leesburg
5.4

How Kincaid Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Kincaid Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 610604Leesburg: 3.53.5Leesburgparent cityCounty: 1.31.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 15Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2016)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kincaid Forest

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Leesburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.4% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107610604

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107610604?

Census tract 51107610604 in the Kincaid Forest neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107610604?

Median gross rent is $2,656/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107610604?

2.6% of residents in tract 51107610604 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,781.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107610604?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 15th, minority 53th, housing 39th.
Q5

Is tract 51107610604 considered part of Kincaid Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107610604 fall within Kincaid Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107610604?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107610604 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.44% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107610604 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107610604 compare to Leesburg overall?

Tract 51107610604 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Leesburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Leesburg

Top eight tracts in Leesburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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