Kincaid Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Leesburg
Tract 51107610604 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,781 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Eviction risk in the Kincaid Forest area of Leesburg centers on tract 51107610604, which scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 6,781 residents. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
22% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,656 monthly, set against $172,639 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 12% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Leesburg and the region
Centroid at 39.0783, -77.5479 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kincaid Forest scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Kincaid Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 3%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.4%Peak (2016)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.3%Housing insecurity
- 4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.6%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 21.8%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Kincaid Forest
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Leesburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.4% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51107610604
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107610604?
What is the average rent in tract 51107610604?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107610604?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107610604?
Is tract 51107610604 considered part of Kincaid Forest?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107610604?
What share of households in tract 51107610604 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51107610604 compare to Leesburg overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Leesburg
Top eight tracts in Leesburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.