Neighborhood · Leesburg, VA

Kincaid Forest Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 6,781 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.1/10 · range 1.1–1.1

Kincaid Forest is a diverse neighborhood in Leesburg with 1 census tract and a population of 6,781 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.1/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 22% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 0% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,656/month sits 26% higher than the Leesburg citywide average ($2,105).

Risk score

1.1

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Kincaid Forest vs Leesburg How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

22.4% -24%

Leesburg: 29.5%

Average gross rent

$2,656 +26%

Leesburg: $2,105

Average HH income

$172,639 +23%

Leesburg: $140,668

Poverty rate

2.6% -66%

Leesburg: 7.6%

Renter share

12.0% -61%

Leesburg: 31.1%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Kincaid Forest and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 1.1–1.1

Why Kincaid Forest scores 1.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts

6.3

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 6.6–6.6 across tracts

6.6

Rent control risk

22% of income on rent · Range 6.6–6.6 across tracts

6.6

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.3–3.3 across tracts

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

12% renter households · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts

6.7

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.4–5.4 across tracts

5.4

Economic stress

2.6% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts

6.5

Risk score comparison

Kincaid Forest vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Kincaid Forest

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51107610604	1.1	6,781	22%	$2,656

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 12

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 3%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 15%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 39%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Kincaid Forest

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

15Total filings (sum)
6.44%Avg annual filing rate
6.4%Peak year (2016)
6.44%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Kincaid Forest

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

7.3%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility shutoff threat
7.6%Food insecurity
5.1%SNAP enrollment
6.0%No health insurance
21.8%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Kincaid Forest

What is the eviction-risk score for Kincaid Forest?

Kincaid Forest scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Kincaid Forest compare to Leesburg overall?

Kincaid Forest scores 2.4 points lower than Leesburg overall (3.5/10). Renters spend 22% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $2,656 vs $2,105.

What is the average rent in Kincaid Forest?

Average gross rent in Kincaid Forest is $2,656/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Kincaid Forest residents are renters?

12% of Kincaid Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 31% in Leesburg). The neighborhood has 6,781 residents.

Is Kincaid Forest a high social-vulnerability area?

Kincaid Forest sits in the 12th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Kincaid Forest for landlords?

Kincaid Forest carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.1/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Leesburg as a whole (3.5/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Kincaid Forest?

Kincaid Forest has 6,806 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (58.9%), Hispanic / Latino (13.8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (11.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Kincaid Forest

3 Stratford 2 tracts · pop 10,234 1 Waxpool 2 tracts · pop 13,459 1 Potomac Green 2 tracts · pop 7,779 1.7 Regency at Ashburn 2 tracts · pop 7,360 1.5 Loudoun Station 2 tracts · pop 5,281 1 Summerfield 2 tracts · pop 20,062

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Leesburg

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Kincaid Forest.

1.4 Village at Leesburg 1 tracts · pop 5,851 3.2 Stratford 2 tracts · pop 10,234

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