Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #73,892 of 84,120 nationally
Cloverdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153900409 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,003 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51153900409 belongs to the Cloverdale area of Dale City, Virginia. It is home to 5,003 residents and scores 5.3/10, a moderate reading for landlords. It lands near the 48th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
55% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,783 monthly, set against $105,040 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 18% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,575
Renter share18.0%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate2.5%
Median income$105,040
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
34
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6282, -77.3235 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cloverdale scores 2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,783 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Cloverdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 26
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 29Total filings over 1 yrs
- 10.03%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.0%Peak (2016)
- 29Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.7%Food insecurity
- 11.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 15.8%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 30.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cloverdale
The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 15.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 29 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 10.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.0% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900409
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900409?
Census tract 51153900409 in the Cloverdale neighborhood scores 2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900409?
Median gross rent is $1,783/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900409?
2.5% of residents in tract 51153900409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,003.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900409?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 28th, minority 88th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900409 considered part of Cloverdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900409 fall within Cloverdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900409?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.03% of renter households, peaking at 10.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900409 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900409 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153900409 scores 2/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Evansdale
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
2.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
1.9
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Mapledale
1.8
/ 10 · Very Low
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