Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Evansdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dale City
Tract 51153900407 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,089 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51153900407 sits in the Evansdale area of Dale City eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 7,089. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units2,329
Renter share52.0%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate6.4%
Median income$71,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
92
th percentile
Very High
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6385, -77.3417 · click any tract to drill in
Why Evansdale scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.4% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,629 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Evansdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 55%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 90Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.50%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.5%Peak (2016)
- 90Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.8%Food insecurity
- 14.8%SNAP enrollment
- 10.2%Transit barriers
- 14.0%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 30.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Evansdale
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.6/10. 52% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Prince William County average of 43.3%. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 90 filings here across 1 tracked years. At $1,629 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Dale City commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 6.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 6.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.2/10.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900407?
Census tract 51153900407 in the Evansdale neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900407?
Median gross rent is $1,629/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900407?
6.4% of residents in tract 51153900407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,089.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 55th, minority 86th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900407 considered part of Evansdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900407 fall within Evansdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900407?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 90 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.50% of renter households, peaking at 6.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900407 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900407 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153900407 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Kerrydale
3
/ 10 · Low
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