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Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally

Forestdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dale City

Tract 51153900404 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,702 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51153900404 is a census tract in the Forestdale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,702 residents. Cost burden runs 64% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 8% Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,697
Renter share21.4%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate16.8%
Median income$89,350

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Forestdale
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Very High
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
High
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#589 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6407, -77.3215 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forestdale scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.8% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,818 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Forestdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Forestdale risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.8This tracttract 9004043.4Dale Cityparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 40Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 9.59%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.6%Peak (2016)
  • 40Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forestdale

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 20.3% against 11.3% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 40 filings here across 1 tracked years.

Food insecurity runs 25.0% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.7 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 9.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.6% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 58th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,818, close to the Dale City average.

Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $89,350.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900404?

Census tract 51153900404 in the Forestdale neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900404?

Median gross rent is $1,818/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900404?

16.8% of residents in tract 51153900404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,702.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 76th, minority 88th, housing 29th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900404 considered part of Forestdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900404 fall within Forestdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900404?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 40 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.59% of renter households, peaking at 9.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153900404 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153900404 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153900404 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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