Forestdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dale City
Tract 51153900404 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,702 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153900404 is a census tract in the Forestdale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,702 residents. Cost burden runs 64% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6407, -77.3215 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forestdale scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Forestdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 40Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.59%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.6%Peak (2016)
- 40Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.9%Housing insecurity
- 11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.0%Food insecurity
- 19.4%SNAP enrollment
- 12.2%Transit barriers
- 20.3%No health insurance
- 17.3%Frequent mental distress
- 36.0%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Forestdale
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 20.3% against 11.3% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 40 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Food insecurity runs 25.0% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.7 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 9.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 58th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,818, close to the Dale City average.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $89,350.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51153900404
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900404?
What is the average rent in tract 51153900404?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900404?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900404?
Is tract 51153900404 considered part of Forestdale?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900404?
What share of households in tract 51153900404 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153900404 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.