Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901211 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,792 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153901211 is a census tract in the Kerrydale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6674, -77.3399 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kerrydale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Kerrydale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 53
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.9%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.7%Food insecurity
- 14.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.1%Transit barriers
- 18.7%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 33.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10.
Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 50% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Court records carry 12 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Adults with no health insurance runs 18.7% against 11.3% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $139,238, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51153901211
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901211?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901211?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901211?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901211?
Is tract 51153901211 considered part of Kerrydale?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901211?
What share of households in tract 51153901211 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901211 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.