Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901211 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,792 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51153901211 in the Kerrydale area of Dale City ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 4,792 residents. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,893 monthly, set against $139,238 in average yearly household income, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 12% of occupied homes.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6674, -77.3399 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kerrydale scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Kerrydale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 53
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.9%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.7%Food insecurity
- 14.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.1%Transit barriers
- 18.7%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 33.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 53rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153901211
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901211?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901211?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901211?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901211?
Is tract 51153901211 considered part of Kerrydale?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901211?
What share of households in tract 51153901211 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901211 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.