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Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally

Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901211 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,792 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51153901211 in the Kerrydale area of Dale City ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 4,792 residents. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,893 monthly, set against $139,238 in average yearly household income, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 12% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 6% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,237
Renter share12.0%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$139,238

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Kerrydale
Very High
Within parent city
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Very Low
Within county
52 th percentile
Rank, 52nd percentileLowHigh
#45 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
27 th percentile
Rank, 27th percentileLowHigh
#1,590 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6674, -77.3399 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kerrydale scores 1.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$1,893 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Kerrydale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Kerrydale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.71.7This tracttract 901211Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 12Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.9%Peak (2016)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 53rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901211

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901211?

Census tract 51153901211 in the Kerrydale neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901211?

Median gross rent is $1,893/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901211?

6.1% of residents in tract 51153901211 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,792.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901211?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 58th, minority 85th, housing 23th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901211 considered part of Kerrydale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901211 fall within Kerrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901211?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901211 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.94% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901211 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901211 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901211 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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