Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Neabsco Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153900408 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,334 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51153900408 is a census tract in the Neabsco Hills area of Dale City, VA. It scores 3.1/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,334 residents. 19% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,554
Renter share14.3%
SVI overall0.27
Poverty rate8.1%
Median income$135,455
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
23
th percentile
Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6270, -77.3367 · click any tract to drill in
Why Neabsco Hills scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.1% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$2,017 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Neabsco Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 27
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 1 yrs
- 12.81%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.8%Peak (2016)
- 26Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.5%Housing insecurity
- 8.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.5%Food insecurity
- 12.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 11.4%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Neabsco Hills
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.0 points.
Court records carry 26 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 12.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 12.8% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 22nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $135,455, annual rent is just 18%.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,017, close to the Dale City average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900408
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900408?
Census tract 51153900408 in the Neabsco Hills neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900408?
Median gross rent is $2,017/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 19% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900408?
8.1% of residents in tract 51153900408 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,334.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900408?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 27th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 40th, minority 78th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900408 considered part of Neabsco Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900408 fall within Neabsco Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900408?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900408 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.81% of renter households, peaking at 12.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900408 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900408 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153900408 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Kerrydale
3
/ 10 · Low
Related