Neighborhood · Ranked #31,898 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900503 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,823 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51153900503 runs through the Marumsco Hills neighborhood of Woodbridge. With 3,823 residents, it scores 5.7/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

34% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,943 a month against an average household income of $109,297 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 46% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 30% Owners 55%

Tract context

Occupied units1,217

Renter share45.9%

SVI overall0.64

Poverty rate1.8%

Median income$109,297

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6448, -77.2802 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Hills scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.8% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,943 rent vs county FMR

3.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Marumsco Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 64

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

75%Socioeconomic
51%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.9%Housing insecurity
13.2%Utility-shutoff threat
28.0%Food insecurity
22.6%SNAP enrollment
13.7%Transit barriers
21.1%No health insurance
18.5%Frequent mental distress
38.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Hills

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 21.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 13.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900503

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900503?

Census tract 51153900503 in the Marumsco Hills neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900503?

Median gross rent is $1,943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900503?

1.8% of residents in tract 51153900503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,823.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 51th, minority 88th, housing 32th.

Is tract 51153900503 considered part of Marumsco Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900503 fall within Marumsco Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153900503 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900503 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900503 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.