Neighborhood · Ranked #20,273 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Plaza Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900203 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,589 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

How risky is the Jefferson Plaza neighborhood of Woodbridge for landlords? Census tract 51153900203 scores 6.3/10, the Elevated tier. On the national scale it ranks #15,359 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 45% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,159 monthly, set against $90,152 in average yearly household income, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 93% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.4

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 51% Owners 8%

Tract context

Occupied units1,387

Renter share92.5%

SVI overall0.80

Poverty rate11.0%

Median income$90,152

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6547, -77.2626 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson Plaza scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

11.0% poverty · this tract

2.8

Supply constraint

$2,159 rent vs county FMR

4.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Jefferson Plaza compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

81%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
52%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

332Total filings over 1 yrs
27.28%Avg annual filing rate
27.3%Peak (2016)
332Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Jefferson Plaza. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

25.5%Housing insecurity
16.2%Utility-shutoff threat
32.1%Food insecurity
27.2%SNAP enrollment
16.1%Transit barriers
21.9%No health insurance
20.1%Frequent mental distress
37.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Plaza

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 25.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 332 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 27.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 27.3% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900203

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900203?

Census tract 51153900203 in the Jefferson Plaza neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900203?

Median gross rent is $2,159/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900203?

11.0% of residents in tract 51153900203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,589.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 78th, minority 90th, housing 52th.

Is tract 51153900203 considered part of Jefferson Plaza?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900203 fall within Jefferson Plaza (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900203?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 332 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.28% of renter households, peaking at 27.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153900203 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900203 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900203 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.