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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Queensdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901226 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,384 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51153901226 in the Queensdale area of Dale City ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 6,384 residents. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

65% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 51% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,201 monthly, set against $170,217 in average yearly household income, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 7% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 2% Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units1,748
Renter share6.6%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$170,217

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Queensdale
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Very Low
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#50 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
22 th percentile
Rank, 22nd percentileLowHigh
#1,710 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6711, -77.3684 · click any tract to drill in

Why Queensdale scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,201 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Queensdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Queensdale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.51.5This tracttract 901226Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 15Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2016)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Queensdale

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 4.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.4% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901226

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901226?

Census tract 51153901226 in the Queensdale neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901226?

Median gross rent is $2,201/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901226?

3.2% of residents in tract 51153901226 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,384.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901226?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 56th, minority 77th, housing 4th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901226 considered part of Queensdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901226 fall within Queensdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901226?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901226 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.44% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901226 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901226 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901226 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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