Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
South Fairview Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chesapeake
Tract 51550020002 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 5,071 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
With a score of 4.3/10, tract 51550020002 in the South Fairview area of Chesapeake, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,071. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units2,007
Renter share53.4%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$58,902
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
78
th percentile
High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region
Centroid at 36.8242, -76.2458 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Fairview scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,321 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
How South Fairview compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 68%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 13%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4,330Total filings over 6 yrs
- 101.45%Avg annual filing rate
- 137.3%Peak (2013)
- 409Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 42% over the past 6 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.7%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.4%Food insecurity
- 17.9%SNAP enrollment
- 11.1%Transit barriers
- 11.3%No health insurance
- 19.8%Frequent mental distress
- 34.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Fairview
The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10.
Average gross rent is $1,321, 17% below the Chesapeake average. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.8/10. The filing record is not thin: 4,330 evictions over 6 years of observation.
Against the Chesapeake City average of 3.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points. The worst year on record was 2013, when 137.3% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 101.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
46% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51550020002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020002?
Census tract 51550020002 in the South Fairview neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51550020002?
Median gross rent is $1,321/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020002?
7.8% of residents in tract 51550020002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,071.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 68th, minority 75th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 51550020002 considered part of South Fairview?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020002 fall within South Fairview (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51550020002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4,330 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 51550020002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 101.45% of renter households, peaking at 137.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51550020002 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51550020002 compare to Chesapeake overall?
Tract 51550020002 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51550020002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake
Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Broadmoor
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Norfolk Highlands
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Crystal Lake
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Campostella Square
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sandy Pines
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Mains Creek Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Parkwood
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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