Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #46,312 of 84,120 nationally
Mains Creek Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Chesapeake
Tract 51550020910 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 1,616 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51550020910, home to 1,616 residents in the Mains Creek Park neighborhood of Chesapeake, scores 4.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 27% of US census tracts.
77% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 4% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,071 monthly, set against $46,563 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. Renters make up 60% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units574
Renter share59.6%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$46,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
92
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region
Centroid at 36.7508, -76.2849 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mains Creek Park scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,071 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
How Mains Creek Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.9%Housing insecurity
- 15.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.8%Food insecurity
- 23.9%SNAP enrollment
- 13.3%Transit barriers
- 9.2%No health insurance
- 19.2%Frequent mental distress
- 32.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mains Creek Park
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 4.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesapeake City County average of 4.3 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Black and multiracial or other-race and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 20.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51550020910
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550020910?
Census tract 51550020910 in the Mains Creek Park neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51550020910?
Median gross rent is $1,071/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51550020910?
19.6% of residents in tract 51550020910 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,616.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51550020910?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 50th, minority 90th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51550020910 considered part of Mains Creek Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550020910 fall within Mains Creek Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51550020910 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51550020910 compare to Chesapeake overall?
Tract 51550020910 scores 3.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake
Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Campostella Square
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Broadmoor
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Parkwood
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Crystal Lake
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Norfolk Highlands
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Westover
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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