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Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally

Bells Mill Eviction Risk: Lower , Chesapeake

Tract 51550021016 · Chesapeake city, VA · pop 4,398 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 51550021016 covers part of the Bells Mill area of Chesapeake, VA, and scores 3.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,398. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 5% Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,818
Renter share10.1%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate6.4%
Median income$99,766

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Bells Mill
Very High
Within parent city
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#35 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake
Moderate
Within county
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#35 of 61 tracts In Chesapeake city
Moderate
Within state
20 th percentile
Rank, 20th percentileLowHigh
#1,741 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chesapeake and the region

Centroid at 36.7116, -76.2877 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bells Mill scores 3.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.4% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,891 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chesapeake
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chesapeake
3.5

How Bells Mill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bells Mill risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.1This tracttract 0210163.4Chesapeakeparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 21

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bells Mill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bells Mill

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.6/10.

At $1,891 a month, rents run 19% over what the rest of Chesapeake commands. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.9% against 15.2% nationally.

Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10. Nationally it ranks #65,414 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 2.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for roughly one in two of renters.

It tracks the Chesapeake City average of 3.6 closely.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51550021016

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51550021016?

Census tract 51550021016 in the Bells Mill neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51550021016?

Median gross rent is $1,891/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51550021016?

6.4% of residents in tract 51550021016 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,398.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51550021016?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 78th, minority 54th, housing 16th.
Q5

Is tract 51550021016 considered part of Bells Mill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51550021016 fall within Bells Mill (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51550021016 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51550021016 compare to Chesapeake overall?

Tract 51550021016 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Chesapeake at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chesapeake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chesapeake

Top eight tracts in Chesapeake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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