Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Ridge Area Eviction Risk: Moderate , Harrisonburg
Tract 51660000302 ·
Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 5,631 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 4.4/10, tract 51660000302 in the Ridge Area area of Harrisonburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,631. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.8/10.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%Stable renters 35%Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units2,030
Renter share66.4%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate20.2%
Median income$57,606
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#2 of 3 tracts In Ridge Area
Moderate
Within parent city
60th percentile
#5 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg
Elevated
Within county
60th percentile
#5 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg city
Elevated
Within state
63th percentile
#800 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region
Centroid at 38.4258, -78.8931 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ridge Area scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.2% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$952 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Harrisonburg
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Harrisonburg
4.5
How Ridge Area compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
94%Socioeconomic
55%Household composition
50%Racial/ethnic minority
85%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ridge Area. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
16.4%Housing insecurity
10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
21.8%Food insecurity
18.9%SNAP enrollment
12.7%Transit barriers
14.5%No health insurance
21.6%Frequent mental distress
36.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ridge Area
66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.
Severe burden reaches 14%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. At $952 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Harrisonburg commands.
47% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Harrisonburg City average of 40.7%. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Nationally it ranks #42,813 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Harrisonburg City average of 4.2 closely.
Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $57,606.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51660000302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000302?
Census tract 51660000302 in the Ridge Area neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51660000302?
Median gross rent is $952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000302?
20.2% of residents in tract 51660000302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,631.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 55th, minority 50th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 51660000302 considered part of Ridge Area?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51660000302 fall within Ridge Area (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51660000302 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51660000302 compare to Harrisonburg overall?
Tract 51660000302 scores 4.4/10, right in line with the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg
Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.