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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,554 of 84,120 nationally

Ridge Area Eviction Risk: Moderate , Harrisonburg

Tract 51660000302 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 5,631 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

Here is how census tract 51660000302, in the Ridge Area neighborhood of Harrisonburg eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.1/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 5,631. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 47% of renter households, a severe level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $952 monthly, set against $57,606 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 66% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 35% Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units2,030
Renter share66.4%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate20.2%
Median income$57,606

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Ridge Area
Moderate
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg
Moderate
Within county
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg city
Moderate
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#206 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region

Centroid at 38.4258, -78.8931 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ridge Area scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.2% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$952 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Harrisonburg
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Harrisonburg
4.5

How Ridge Area compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ridge Area risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.15.1This tracttract 000302Harrisonburg: 4.34.3Harrisonburgparent cityCounty: 5.05.0Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Ridge Area. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ridge Area

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Harrisonburg City County average of 5.0 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51660000302

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000302?

Census tract 51660000302 in the Ridge Area neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51660000302?

Median gross rent is $952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000302?

20.2% of residents in tract 51660000302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,631.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 55th, minority 50th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 51660000302 considered part of Ridge Area?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51660000302 fall within Ridge Area (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51660000302 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51660000302 compare to Harrisonburg overall?

Tract 51660000302 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg

Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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