Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Tinbridge Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000600 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,019 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51680000600 is a census tract in the Tinbridge Hill area of Lynchburg, VA. It scores 5.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,019 residents. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 37%
Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,208
Renter share72.9%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate32.6%
Median income$29,524
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.4142, -79.1534 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tinbridge Hill scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
32.6% poverty · this tract
8.2
Supply constraint
$961 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Tinbridge Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 29%Grade C
- 25%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 639Total filings over 4 yrs
- 21.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 22.6%Peak (2014)
- 156Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.7%Housing insecurity
- 18.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 33.1%Food insecurity
- 34.0%SNAP enrollment
- 17.0%Transit barriers
- 13.8%No health insurance
- 21.1%Frequent mental distress
- 42.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tinbridge Hill
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $29,524, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. SNAP participation runs 34.0% against 15.2% nationally.
The poverty rate is 33%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Food insecurity runs 33.1% against 17.8% nationally. Running hot, economic stress reads 8.2/10. Against the Lynchburg City average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.
Against Lynchburg City at 43.8%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened. The filing record is not thin: 639 evictions over 4 years of observation.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000600?
Census tract 51680000600 in the Tinbridge Hill neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000600?
Median gross rent is $961/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000600?
32.6% of residents in tract 51680000600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,019.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 41th, minority 80th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000600 considered part of Tinbridge Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000600 fall within Tinbridge Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 639 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.53% of renter households, peaking at 22.6% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000600 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000600 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000600 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000600 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 25% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lower Rivermont
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Related