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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Westend Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000801 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,191 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

The Westend neighborhood of Lynchburg anchors census tract 51680000801, which lands at 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

47% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $941 monthly, set against $59,671 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 44% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 23% Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units726
Renter share43.7%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate15.1%
Median income$59,671

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Westend
Very Low
Within parent city
32 th percentile
Rank, 32nd percentileLowHigh
#16 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg
Low
Within county
32 th percentile
Rank, 32nd percentileLowHigh
#16 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg city
Low
Within state
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#387 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.3997, -79.1740 · click any tract to drill in

Why Westend scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.1% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$941 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5

How Westend compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Westend risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 000801Lynchburg: 4.04.0Lynchburgparent cityCounty: 4.74.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 58

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 263Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 15.14%Avg annual filing rate
  • 22.4%Peak (2013)
  • 50Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 516800008012013: 104 filings (22.37/100 renter HHs)2014: 67 filings (14.41/100 renter HHs)2015: 42 filings (9.03/100 renter HHs)2016: 50 filings (14.75/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 52% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Westend. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Westend

What moves this score most is economic stress at 3.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 58th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000801

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000801?

Census tract 51680000801 in the Westend neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51680000801?

Median gross rent is $941/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000801?

15.1% of residents in tract 51680000801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,191.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000801?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 16th, minority 56th, housing 56th.
Q5

Is tract 51680000801 considered part of Westend?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000801 fall within Westend (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000801?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 263 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.14% of renter households, peaking at 22.4% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51680000801 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51680000801 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000801 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51680000801 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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