Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Perrymont Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000802 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,080 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Eviction risk in Perrymont in Lynchburg centers on tract 51680000802, which scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 3,080 residents. It lands near the 44th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 34% of renter households, a high level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,123 a month against an average household income of $67,813 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 60% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,270
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$67,813
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.3924, -79.1928 · click any tract to drill in
Why Perrymont scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,123 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Perrymont compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 3%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 297Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.6%Peak (2014)
- 71Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.1%Food insecurity
- 12.8%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 19.6%Frequent mental distress
- 31.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Perrymont
What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 297 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 9.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.6% of renter households in 2014.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000802?
Census tract 51680000802 in the Perrymont neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000802?
Median gross rent is $1,123/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000802?
20.1% of residents in tract 51680000802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,080.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 1th, minority 52th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000802 considered part of Perrymont?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000802 fall within Perrymont (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 297 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.53% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000802 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000802 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000802 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000802 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
College Park
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Westend
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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