Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Perrymont Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000802 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,080 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51680000802 covers part of the Perrymont area of Lynchburg, VA, and scores 4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,080. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,270
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$67,813
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.3924, -79.1928 · click any tract to drill in
Why Perrymont scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,123 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Perrymont compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 3%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 297Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.6%Peak (2014)
- 71Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.1%Food insecurity
- 12.8%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 19.6%Frequent mental distress
- 31.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Perrymont
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against Lynchburg City at 43.8%, 34% of renters here are cost-burdened. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Court records carry 297 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10.
Filings peaked in 2014 at 10.6% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground A ("Best"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 9.5% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 42nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000802?
Census tract 51680000802 in the Perrymont neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000802?
Median gross rent is $1,123/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000802?
20.1% of residents in tract 51680000802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,080.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 1th, minority 52th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000802 considered part of Perrymont?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000802 fall within Perrymont (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 297 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.53% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000802 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000802 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000802 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000802 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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