Neighborhood · Ranked #16,850 of 84,120 nationally

College Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680001601 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,083 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 5.9/10, tract 51680001601 in College Park in Lynchburg ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,083 residents. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $980 a month against an average household income of $42,731 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 63% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 31% Owners 37%

Tract context

Occupied units1,169

Renter share63.0%

SVI overall0.47

Poverty rate26.9%

Median income$42,731

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.3512, -79.1968 · click any tract to drill in

Why College Park scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lynchburg

4.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

26.9% poverty · this tract

6.7

Supply constraint

$980 rent vs county FMR

3.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lynchburg

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lynchburg

3.5

How College Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

70%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
56%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.8%Housing insecurity
12.4%Utility-shutoff threat
22.7%Food insecurity
22.3%SNAP enrollment
12.7%Transit barriers
11.4%No health insurance
20.6%Frequent mental distress
38.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in College Park

What moves this score most is economic stress at 6.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680001601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680001601?

Census tract 51680001601 in the College Park neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51680001601?

Median gross rent is $980/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680001601?

26.9% of residents in tract 51680001601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,083.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680001601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 2th, minority 56th, housing 68th.

Is tract 51680001601 considered part of College Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680001601 fall within College Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51680001601 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51680001601 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680001601 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.